Jay's Journal

If the bookies are right, how many seats would each party win in Scotland in May?

Posted on: January 1, 2015

alittleecon

There have been a lot of stories recently about opinion polls north of the border showing a huge surge in SNP support at the expense of Labour. This article in the Guardian last week is a good example, which predicted that the SNP could win up to 45 of the 59 Scottish seats next May. With this in mind, I thought it would be interesting to see whether the bookies (and their punters) agreed with these dire (for Labour) predictions. Ladbrokes currently have odds up for every Westminster contest, and I’ve reproduced the odds for each Scottish seat below (click on each image to enlarge). I’ve only displayed the odds for the parties Ladbrokes currently have 1st and second in each race. Odds are correct as of 31st December. As you can see, the current odds don’t reflect the polls.

Screenshot 2014-12-31 at 9.47.05 PM
Screenshot 2014-12-31 at 9.47.55 PM
Screenshot 2014-12-31 at 9.48.25 PM

Based on the bookies’ current odds, in this next table…

View original post 379 more words

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1 Response to "If the bookies are right, how many seats would each party win in Scotland in May?"

I posted this on “alittlecon” I could not see what the different ways you mentioned were. Surely if you have always voted Labour then bring your ideas to the party. No doubt I am disgusted by the National Party behaviour in the referendum for the same reasons as you. First and foremost they should never have got into bed with the ConDems and secondly they should have been warning against the divide and rule that Cameron intended when pushing the referendum. I am of Irish descent living in Yorkshire and would love a socialist republic of the British Isles federated with other socialist republics throughout Europe and the World instead of the Corporate Dominated world we now live in.

What is Jaypot12 saying is it a case of “I’m alright Jock”, The needs and aspirations everywhere for the majority of people whether in Scotland or elsewhere fall within a medium spectrum. Everyone has to fulfil the need for food and water, for warmth and shelter, a means to provide through work/pension/welfare for those unfortunate to need it. Having achieved those basics we then can exist in degrees of happiness and fulfilment How is that different when you cross an imaginary line called a border. The Labour party which you claim to have supported has down the years, despite being derailed several times by sneering traitors, has always been a better alternative than the Tories. The rise of Nationalism which is a primitive impulse allied to narrower tribalism akin to the ancient clan system seeks to promote a Laird who becomes a Dictator. The unfortunate thing about this is that the greater good of the UKs ordinary people is sacrificed for narrow interests of those who promote Nationalism. If the SNP, which attempts to steal the clothes of past working class champions, has the best interests of all workers why are they making it a probability for Cameron to continue in power. Workers of the World Unite is something more pressing now than it has ever been.

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